Consequences of Betrayal
The rumor mill never ever fully hushed. An unidentified American expert working closely with South Korean-U.S. military officials has shed some light onto the events unfolding within the ROK including rumors of a USFK withdrawal and behind-the-scenes insight regarding the recent North Korean missile launches.
Identified only as a U.S. military intelligence officer, the source claimed that American military relations with the South Korean government have never been lower and that a military divorce of some kind is expected to be announced later this year.
Refusing to go into absolute specifics, the officer said that sometime in October, U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and South Korean Foreign Prime Minister Ban Ki-Moon will sign an agreement during a Security Consultative Meeting (SCM) which will essentially hand over control of joint U.S.-ROK military affairs to the South Korean military. Currently American forces hold authoritative power in the relationship.
That means, he said, that sometime in the near future, U.S. forces will begin to leave Korea although they will maintain a “presence” on the peninsula under a different name. When asked how this would affect the current relocation of U.S. forces to Pyongtaek, the source refused to elaborate only to say that the plans to relocate to Pyongtaek will continue with a significantly smaller than anticipated U.S. presence residing there. He stressed that he could say more about Pyongtake after the October agreement between Rice and Ban has been signed.
The official refused to go into further detail regarding the contents of the agreement and would not release the new name of the U.S. military presence he had mentioned.
The source went on to stress that what this means is not just a departure of U.S. military personnel but also the exodus of American military equipment and technology including tanks and satellite capabilities. His assessment claimed that such an absence would leave the South Korean military extremely vulnerable. His also claims that ROK military officials he has contact with have expressed extreme concern over the agreement which has come directly from South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun himself.
The intelligence officer claimed that the ROK military is protesting the future agreement while at the same time scrambling to make plans to accommodate these new changes.
Unsure of when or how the South Korean government would break the news to the people, the source made an educated guess that when the government decided to spin the proposal, the agreement would be hailed by the South Korean government as a success for the ROK military in that they would claim to be independent of USFK control.
The American source felt that the Blue House would rely on South Koreans’ strong sense of nationalism to carry the agreement through to its actual signing, but worried about what would happen after the agreement is finalized. In particular he expressed anxiety over what would happen once the euphoria died down which is when he expected the tough questions to be asked by the Korean public. He gave the public 24-48 hours after the signing to truly realize what it meant for Korea.
Citing personal experience working with the ROK government, the source believed that South Korea is in denial over the rumors of a real U.S. troop reduction/absence. He guessed that the realization of what this meant would come only when U.S. military equipment, technology and personnel started to actually depart the country which he said would begin sometime after the agreement between Rice and Ban was signed.
Part of the reason for South Korean doubt he said is because there have been many false calls in the past regarding a US forces’ departure. But perhaps a bigger reason for this is the fact that the ROK has become so dependent on the American military that it is incomprehensible to many what life without U.S. forces would be like on the peninsula.
The U.S. intelligence officer made a personal prediction that come March 2007, President Roh would be asking for an annulment to the signed agreement. He believed by this time, public pressure would force Roh to ask the US for reconsideration.
When pressed on what he believes will happen should that indeed take place, the American officer claimed nothing will change, that USFK forces are ready to leave Korea and have been insulted by the Korean government’s disrespect for their presence within the country. Why stay when you are not wanted, he offered.
He did stress however that a troop departure did not signal a complete abandonment by U.S. forces. Should a crisis ever erupt, the U.S. would send military assistance to the ROK immediately.
The source did express anxiety over what the October agreement will do to Korea itself. He predicted that the KOSPI would tumble and that the country would experience financial flight as the South Korean elite would suddenly begin transferring funds out of Korea while simultaneously making plans for an emergency evacuation from the country should a security issue arise. The American source stressed that he did not believe such a security threat would develop but said it would not stop wealthy Koreans from making plans nonetheless and that it certainly would scare investors.
What will this mean for the security of South Korea? The American official believed it would leave the country vulnerable. He believed it would also send a huge message to Korea’s neighbors including North Korea and Japan. He did not think it would result in an immediate security crisis, however.
What does this mean in light of the recent North Korean missile tests? The official believed the October agreement would leave the ROK military feeling nervous. When the North test launched its missiles on July 4, it was the Americans who notified the Koreans of the event, he claimed. In other words, the South Koreans learned of it second-hand as they do not possess the technological capability to trace such activities immediately following their occurrence he said.
To further illustrate the strain in American-ROK relationships during the recent North Korean launch, the source stated that following the news, President George W. Bush made phone calls to the leaders of 15 other nations. President Roh Moo-hyun was not one of them.
The significance of this action spoke volumes to the Koreans he said. South Korea should have been the first country to be consulted over these launches. They were in fact, not even included on the list.
Immediately following this, the Blue House announced a September visit to be made by Roh to Washington. The source claims that visit is a direct result of Korea’s exclusion from the phone calls Bush made following the North Korean launches.
When asked to give a personal assessment of the July 4 missile tests, the source contradicted the South Korean government’s claim that the missiles were aimed at no one in particular. “They were not literally aimed at anyone but they were a signal to South Korea’s neighbors,” he claimed. He then pointed out how the North test fired three different types of missiles.
The launch of one particular missile was a signal to Japan saying, “We have the capability to hit you.” The launch of another particular missile he believed was a signal to South Korea saying, “We also have the capability to hit you.” The launching of a third type of missile was a message to the U.S. saying, “We are working on finding a way to hit you.”
The source admitted that on July 4, the U.S. was extremely close to going to war with North Korea and that as in the past, diplomacy saved the day. In fact, it was the first time since October 2005 that the U.S. came close to going to war with the North. When asked what happened in October 2005, the source refused to give further information on the topic.
In the short term, the source admitted to having no concerns of a war breaking out on the Korean peninsula, at least one involving the U.S. (Japan, he believed was another story, however.)
Even if the North were to test additional missiles in the near future, the U.S. would be willing to let them pass unless of course, they came close to U.S. territory or that of American allies. The only other reason the U.S. would go to war would be if there is sufficient proof that the North Koreans are selling missiles or intelligence to other countries, especially American enemies.
The official admitted that he believes the U.S. is not interested in becoming involved in another military confrontation as it is pre-occupied with Afghanistan and Iraq. However, if the circumstances demanded it of the U.S. he thinks they would pull out all their reserves including forces in Central Asia and the Middle East to aid in a North Korean offense. In his personal opinion, they would succeed against North Korea and against the other two current conflicts as well but after that, it would be the end of the U.S. military as we now know it because he feels soldiers would no longer have any interest in serving. It should be emphasized that this is his personal, not professional opinion and holds absolutely no merit whatsoever.
Of course a worst-case scenario would include an attack in which case he predicted one of two things to happen:
1) The U.S. would destroy North Korea so quickly the only evidence Seoul would see would be an influx of North Korean refugees.
2) In a tougher battle, the ROK and US forces would be able to hold the North’s military as far as Daegu being that the North Koreans would be aiming for Busan, taking a lesson from what was learned during the Korean War. Busan, he believed, would feel the brunt of the attacks and would even see missile launches. The North Koreans would want to take control of the port and cut off its logistics capabilities thus slowly strangling the US and ROK forces. Contrary to popular belief, the source does not believe Seoul would be a North Korean target. Seoul would fall nonetheless but it would be Busan the North Koreans would be after.
A lot has been discussed internally, the official said, about what could happen during a war. The question has been brought up in the past, “Can the U.S. trust Korean forces to fight with them and not turn against them at the command of the president.” Another question also has been discussed among officials regarding that first possibility and that is, “If the president commands forces to turn against the U.S., would the military even listen or obey?”
The source stressed that such questions were simply brainstorming scenarios, that there is no evidence that such a situation would ever take place.
Considering the direction things seem to be going toward in South Korea, the source stated his personal opinion (again not professional one) saying he would not be surprised if South Korea saw another political coup within the near future. He emphasized that democracy is still young in South Korea and that if things got bad enough, a benign dictatorship is a possibility and one that he believes, may actually do good for the ROK. The chances of that happening are extremely slight, he said, but if it were to happen he would not be shocked.
In the meantime, he claims the military relationship between the US and ROK has been damaged beyond repair. He believes the US is happy to be leaving Korea and is satisfied to simply defend it from afar. He also doubted that the South Korean military is prepared for the changes the October agreement will bring which as mentioned earlier includes not only a manpower departure but an equipment and technology one as well.
He did not see the risk of a war breaking out in the near future unless it meant North Korea saw its unavoidable end in which case he predicted they would go down fighting. He remained cautious about any further developments that could result from further North Korean military activity, however.
Identified only as a U.S. military intelligence officer, the source claimed that American military relations with the South Korean government have never been lower and that a military divorce of some kind is expected to be announced later this year.
Refusing to go into absolute specifics, the officer said that sometime in October, U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and South Korean Foreign Prime Minister Ban Ki-Moon will sign an agreement during a Security Consultative Meeting (SCM) which will essentially hand over control of joint U.S.-ROK military affairs to the South Korean military. Currently American forces hold authoritative power in the relationship.
That means, he said, that sometime in the near future, U.S. forces will begin to leave Korea although they will maintain a “presence” on the peninsula under a different name. When asked how this would affect the current relocation of U.S. forces to Pyongtaek, the source refused to elaborate only to say that the plans to relocate to Pyongtaek will continue with a significantly smaller than anticipated U.S. presence residing there. He stressed that he could say more about Pyongtake after the October agreement between Rice and Ban has been signed.
The official refused to go into further detail regarding the contents of the agreement and would not release the new name of the U.S. military presence he had mentioned.
The source went on to stress that what this means is not just a departure of U.S. military personnel but also the exodus of American military equipment and technology including tanks and satellite capabilities. His assessment claimed that such an absence would leave the South Korean military extremely vulnerable. His also claims that ROK military officials he has contact with have expressed extreme concern over the agreement which has come directly from South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun himself.
The intelligence officer claimed that the ROK military is protesting the future agreement while at the same time scrambling to make plans to accommodate these new changes.
Unsure of when or how the South Korean government would break the news to the people, the source made an educated guess that when the government decided to spin the proposal, the agreement would be hailed by the South Korean government as a success for the ROK military in that they would claim to be independent of USFK control.
The American source felt that the Blue House would rely on South Koreans’ strong sense of nationalism to carry the agreement through to its actual signing, but worried about what would happen after the agreement is finalized. In particular he expressed anxiety over what would happen once the euphoria died down which is when he expected the tough questions to be asked by the Korean public. He gave the public 24-48 hours after the signing to truly realize what it meant for Korea.
Citing personal experience working with the ROK government, the source believed that South Korea is in denial over the rumors of a real U.S. troop reduction/absence. He guessed that the realization of what this meant would come only when U.S. military equipment, technology and personnel started to actually depart the country which he said would begin sometime after the agreement between Rice and Ban was signed.
Part of the reason for South Korean doubt he said is because there have been many false calls in the past regarding a US forces’ departure. But perhaps a bigger reason for this is the fact that the ROK has become so dependent on the American military that it is incomprehensible to many what life without U.S. forces would be like on the peninsula.
The U.S. intelligence officer made a personal prediction that come March 2007, President Roh would be asking for an annulment to the signed agreement. He believed by this time, public pressure would force Roh to ask the US for reconsideration.
When pressed on what he believes will happen should that indeed take place, the American officer claimed nothing will change, that USFK forces are ready to leave Korea and have been insulted by the Korean government’s disrespect for their presence within the country. Why stay when you are not wanted, he offered.
He did stress however that a troop departure did not signal a complete abandonment by U.S. forces. Should a crisis ever erupt, the U.S. would send military assistance to the ROK immediately.
The source did express anxiety over what the October agreement will do to Korea itself. He predicted that the KOSPI would tumble and that the country would experience financial flight as the South Korean elite would suddenly begin transferring funds out of Korea while simultaneously making plans for an emergency evacuation from the country should a security issue arise. The American source stressed that he did not believe such a security threat would develop but said it would not stop wealthy Koreans from making plans nonetheless and that it certainly would scare investors.
What will this mean for the security of South Korea? The American official believed it would leave the country vulnerable. He believed it would also send a huge message to Korea’s neighbors including North Korea and Japan. He did not think it would result in an immediate security crisis, however.
What does this mean in light of the recent North Korean missile tests? The official believed the October agreement would leave the ROK military feeling nervous. When the North test launched its missiles on July 4, it was the Americans who notified the Koreans of the event, he claimed. In other words, the South Koreans learned of it second-hand as they do not possess the technological capability to trace such activities immediately following their occurrence he said.
To further illustrate the strain in American-ROK relationships during the recent North Korean launch, the source stated that following the news, President George W. Bush made phone calls to the leaders of 15 other nations. President Roh Moo-hyun was not one of them.
The significance of this action spoke volumes to the Koreans he said. South Korea should have been the first country to be consulted over these launches. They were in fact, not even included on the list.
Immediately following this, the Blue House announced a September visit to be made by Roh to Washington. The source claims that visit is a direct result of Korea’s exclusion from the phone calls Bush made following the North Korean launches.
When asked to give a personal assessment of the July 4 missile tests, the source contradicted the South Korean government’s claim that the missiles were aimed at no one in particular. “They were not literally aimed at anyone but they were a signal to South Korea’s neighbors,” he claimed. He then pointed out how the North test fired three different types of missiles.
The launch of one particular missile was a signal to Japan saying, “We have the capability to hit you.” The launch of another particular missile he believed was a signal to South Korea saying, “We also have the capability to hit you.” The launching of a third type of missile was a message to the U.S. saying, “We are working on finding a way to hit you.”
The source admitted that on July 4, the U.S. was extremely close to going to war with North Korea and that as in the past, diplomacy saved the day. In fact, it was the first time since October 2005 that the U.S. came close to going to war with the North. When asked what happened in October 2005, the source refused to give further information on the topic.
In the short term, the source admitted to having no concerns of a war breaking out on the Korean peninsula, at least one involving the U.S. (Japan, he believed was another story, however.)
Even if the North were to test additional missiles in the near future, the U.S. would be willing to let them pass unless of course, they came close to U.S. territory or that of American allies. The only other reason the U.S. would go to war would be if there is sufficient proof that the North Koreans are selling missiles or intelligence to other countries, especially American enemies.
The official admitted that he believes the U.S. is not interested in becoming involved in another military confrontation as it is pre-occupied with Afghanistan and Iraq. However, if the circumstances demanded it of the U.S. he thinks they would pull out all their reserves including forces in Central Asia and the Middle East to aid in a North Korean offense. In his personal opinion, they would succeed against North Korea and against the other two current conflicts as well but after that, it would be the end of the U.S. military as we now know it because he feels soldiers would no longer have any interest in serving. It should be emphasized that this is his personal, not professional opinion and holds absolutely no merit whatsoever.
Of course a worst-case scenario would include an attack in which case he predicted one of two things to happen:
1) The U.S. would destroy North Korea so quickly the only evidence Seoul would see would be an influx of North Korean refugees.
2) In a tougher battle, the ROK and US forces would be able to hold the North’s military as far as Daegu being that the North Koreans would be aiming for Busan, taking a lesson from what was learned during the Korean War. Busan, he believed, would feel the brunt of the attacks and would even see missile launches. The North Koreans would want to take control of the port and cut off its logistics capabilities thus slowly strangling the US and ROK forces. Contrary to popular belief, the source does not believe Seoul would be a North Korean target. Seoul would fall nonetheless but it would be Busan the North Koreans would be after.
A lot has been discussed internally, the official said, about what could happen during a war. The question has been brought up in the past, “Can the U.S. trust Korean forces to fight with them and not turn against them at the command of the president.” Another question also has been discussed among officials regarding that first possibility and that is, “If the president commands forces to turn against the U.S., would the military even listen or obey?”
The source stressed that such questions were simply brainstorming scenarios, that there is no evidence that such a situation would ever take place.
Considering the direction things seem to be going toward in South Korea, the source stated his personal opinion (again not professional one) saying he would not be surprised if South Korea saw another political coup within the near future. He emphasized that democracy is still young in South Korea and that if things got bad enough, a benign dictatorship is a possibility and one that he believes, may actually do good for the ROK. The chances of that happening are extremely slight, he said, but if it were to happen he would not be shocked.
In the meantime, he claims the military relationship between the US and ROK has been damaged beyond repair. He believes the US is happy to be leaving Korea and is satisfied to simply defend it from afar. He also doubted that the South Korean military is prepared for the changes the October agreement will bring which as mentioned earlier includes not only a manpower departure but an equipment and technology one as well.
He did not see the risk of a war breaking out in the near future unless it meant North Korea saw its unavoidable end in which case he predicted they would go down fighting. He remained cautious about any further developments that could result from further North Korean military activity, however.
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